Skip to content
Logotyp för Naturhistoriska riksmuseet
Logotyp för Naturhistoriska riksmuseet
Herring

Photo: Nicolas Dusex

Using ancient DNA to predict future dynamics of herring in a warming sea

This project will assess the demographic and adaptive responses of Atlantic and Baltic herring to sea warming, using a temporal genomics approach relying on comparisons of historical and modern genomes and forward simulations.

Forskningsområden: Populationsanalys och -övervakning

Forskningsämnen: Bevarande, Evolution, Klimatförändringar, Populationsgenetik

Project period: 2024-2026

Participating Departments from the museum: Department of Nature and Environment Monitoring (NA)

Climate change and the associated sea warming will profoundly reshape marine ecosystems globally. Numerous species will experience range shifts as populations track ideal conditions and are replaced by other species adapted to warmer waters. Alternatively, some species may have enough evolutionary potential to adapt to changing environmental conditions. As a case in point, the Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), a key species of pelagic ecosystems, is characterised by large populations numbering billions of individuals and by high overall genetic diversity. It is also known for its dynamic population history and episodic local population invasions. Moreover, herring have a wide distribution and occupy the contrasting niches of the Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea.

Yet, it is not clear to what degree plasticity and genetic variation contribute to the adaptations to various environments. Here, we propose to test this question by using a temporal genomics approach relying on comparisons of historical and modern genomes forward simulations. Access to a comprehensive genomic dataset of modern herrings and to historical samples dating back to the 1400s offer an unprecedented opportunity to examine past population dynamics in response to past environmental changes and predict its future response to warming seas. Ultimately, this temporal transect analysis will provide essential information for future planning of sustainable herring fisheries in the North Atlantic and Baltic seas.

Project description

For this project, we propose to examine temporal changes in allele frequencies at loci controlling ecological adaptation, in particular those that determine adaptation to water temperature at spawning in Baltic and Atlantic herring. We will further explore migration patterns, connectivity among stocks and adaptability to changing environmental conditions. Using a combination of genomic data from modern herrings and specimens from museum collections and archaeological sites dating to the past 500 years, historical climate data and forward-in-time simulations, we will:

  1. Examine the temporal population dynamics of herring since the 18th century by correlating changes in genomic signatures and climate variables
  2. Examine the correlation between genetic changes and sea warming over the past ~500 years to predict the resilience and adaptation of herring to future climate change
  3. Model the future distribution of herring in response to warming seas and assess the associated impacts on its genome-wide diversity

Societal relevance

Our project will provide extensive scientific insights into the genomic effects of warming sea temperature on herring migration patterns, and stock genetic composition and local adaptation. This information is highly relevant for setting management strategies to protect stocks that are under risk of strong climate selection, that is, where higher mortality than normal will kick-in to adapt a stock to a changing environment, such as, increased temperature. Second, we will gain a basic understanding of the factors behind the migration dynamics that have interfered with the fishing industry through historical times and into present. Using this knowledge we will predict changes in migration patterns that can be expected over the coming decades of warmer sea temperatures. Finally, this project will also greatly contribute to developing genomics as a monitoring and management tool for other fish species, and not least pioneering the use of the historical archives of fish populations available in our museums.

The project will contribute to the fulfilment of two of the sustainable development goals (SDG) identified by the United Nations and central to FORMAS; Life below water (Goal 14) and Ensure sustainable production and consumption (Goal 12). More specifically it contributes to the sub-objectives 14.4 on promoting sustainable fisheries by increasing the knowledge of subpopulations hence increasing the ability to revise the current division of administrative units, so that it takes greater account of subpopulations. It also contributes to sub-objective 12.2, sustainable management and use of natural resources, as the results from this project aims to improve the management of the Atlantic herring and lead to a more sustainable fishery.

Relevant networks

Financial support

Formas (grant number 2023-00588)

Team

Prof. Love Dalén (NRM, Stockjolm Universitet)

Prof. Kerstin Johanneson (Göteborgs Universitet, Tjärnö marina laboratorium)

Prof. Leif Andersson (Uppsala Universitet)

Principal Investigator (NRM, PAN)

Nicolas Dussex

Nicolas Dussex

Researcher

Population Analysis and Monitoring

Epost-ikon nicolas.dussex@nrm.se

Resarch Areas: Population Analysis and Monitoring

Research Subjects: Climate change, Evolution, Population genetics, Conservation

Page manager: Nicolas Dussex